Correlation FC

Bees defeat West Ham 3-0

Lots of chances at both ends, but the Bees scored three goals and kept their 10th clean sheet of the season to move up to sixth place with only three games remaining.

Familiar themes

Kayode from KLP

The first goal of the game will officially go down as an own goal, but as you may be aware, we don't do own goals at Correlation FC. We are, of course, awarding the goal to Michael Kayode, who for the second time this season, arrived at the back post just in time to connect with a Keane Lewis-Potter cross from the left wing and see the ball into the net. This unofficial goal involvement from KLP arguably involved quite a bit more skill than the official assist he received later in the game when he rolled the ball a short distance to Mikkel Damsgaard, who scored with a well-placed shot into the bottom right corner of the goal.

Another Thiago penalty scored, another penalty won by Dango

The second goal of the game was a penalty by Igor Thiago, his league-leading 8th of the season. This brings his overall league total to 22. It was also the fifth penalty won by Dango Ouattara this season, surely best in the league as well.

Undefeated at home when scoring first

The Bees have scored first in 11 of 17 games at the Gtech this season. They have gone on to pick up points in every one of those games, winning seven and drawing four.

Goals = points

On the theme of goals, we noticed that the Bees goal total (52) was almost the same as their point total so far this season. We were interested in seeing if that was just a coincidence, or if there was any relationship between their goal and point total throughout the season.

Cumulative goals and league points in 2025-26 (source: Correlation FC)

It looks like the two have followed each other quite closely throughout the season. This suggests that the Bees will need to pick up another nine goals in their remaining three games to ensure three straight victories.

What was different

Josh is back

We mentioned that Josh Dasilva was on the bench for the last game. Keith Andrews gave Dasilva his just reward for his unrelenting perserverance when he brought him on as a second-half substitute. The Gtech has rarely been louder than when he stepped onto the pitch for the first time in nearly three seasons.

Hickey and Janelt back as well

In other positive news, Aaron Hickey made his first appearance since mid-February against Brighton. Vitaly Janelt was on the bench for the first time since that same game against Brighton. It looks like the Bees are getting healthier just in time for the final push of the season.

Ample subs used

It probably isn't a coincidence, but just as the squad's depth has begun to improve due to players returning from injury, Andrews has made more substitutes. Andrews made four subs against West Ham, one more than the combined three subs in the last four games. He hasn't made four or more subs since ... you guessed it, the February game against Brighton.

Furo debut

At the same time that Hickey and Dasilva came onto the pitch, 18-year-old Kaye Furo made his Premier League debut. No goals in this brief appearance, but he did look confident and brought some energy to help the Bees finish off the game.

Other data stories

Season winding down

With only a few weeks to go in the league, there is still remarkable uncertainty about where in the table the Bees may finish. Their best-case scenario now would be to win their remaining games and end up with 60 points. If Liverpool, Aston Villa and Bournemouth were to lose all of their remaining games, that would put the Bees into fourth place. Unlikely, but possible - Opta gives this outcome a 0.12% chance of happening.

If the Bees were to lose all of their remaining games and the teams below them were to all go on uncharacteristic winning streaks, the Bees could finish as low as 16th. This would require Nottingham Forest to win their four remaining games and dramatically improve their goal differential. Opta actually gives this a 0% chance of happening. They think there is an 89% chance that the Bees will end up in the top half of the table.

We don't have the super-computer resources of the likes of Opta. But we do have Correlation FC numbers and charts, so what we can show is how the team's possible points and actual points earned have converged over the course of the season.

Maximum possible points vs actual points in 2025-26 (source: Correlation FC)

In this visualisation, the season starts with a belief that everything is possible — the team could win every single game (114 points) and the team could lose every game (0 points). As reality intervenes, and the season progresses with wins, losses and draws, the timeline moves to the right. At the same time, the bottom line that represesents the team's actual points begins to move up and up. Similarily, the top line represents the maximum possible point total that drops throughout the season with each loss or draw.

Where do things stand now? The worst the Bees can do point-wise is end up at their current total of 51 points. The best result would be a total of 60. What will reality look like? Come back in three weeks to find out.

Goal contributions