Correlation FC

Brentford vs Leeds, preview

Brentford plays their final home game before Christmas, hosting Leeds. The Bees will be looking to bounce back after a week to recover and refocus after two losses in North London in 4 days.

Recent history

The Bees and Leeds have only played 4 times in the Premier League. Both games at Elland Road finished as draws, and both teams have won a game at the Gtech. The teams had a scoreless draw the last time they played, which was in January 2023. Going back to the Championship, the teams have a fairly even split with the home team picking up points in 11 of 12 matches.

Recent form

Neither team comes into the game in particularly good form, though Leeds may have the edge. They've earned a win, a loss and a draw in their last three games against Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool. The Bees lost two straight on the road but won their two previous home games before that. The Bees have one of the best home records in the league.

Opta Power Rankings (as of 12th December 2025)

Pre-game correlations

No team has been fouled less often in the league this season than Brentford. Only one team has been fouled more than Leeds (Aston Villa). Brentford has been fouled 128 times, about 8.5 times per game. Leeds has been fouled 186 times, about 12.5 times per game. However, when it comes to committing fouls, the teams are virtually deadlocked, at just under 11 fouls per game. The Bees have won a penalty on average once per 21 fouls (compared to once for every 93 fouls for Leeds). The Bees have been fouled a total of 15 times in their last 2 games without receiving a penalty. Is another penalty imminent? Does it mean anything? Time will tell.

Other data stories

Seeing yellow

Kevin Schade is the unfortunate winner of the competition to become the first Bee to reach 5 yellow cards this season. As he's reached it before the Bees play their 19th match, the league has assessed him with a one-match ban. Schade has played in 59 consecutive league matches for the Bees dating back to April 2024. Before that impressive streak, he missed 27 consecutive league matches due to injury.

His absence will, of course, create an opportunity for somebody. Keane Lewis-Potter will surely be eager to reclaim his position in the starting lineup. Gustavo Nunes will be another consideration at left wing, as could be Reiss Nelson, if he's healthy.

Brentford's yellow cards in the 2025-26 Premier League season (source: FBref)

Nathan Collins will need to be on his best behaviour for the rest of the calendar year, hoping he doesn't pick up another yellow card. Like Schade, he's been a regular in the Bees', playing in each of the last 53 league matches.

Very at home against newly promoted sides

The Bees have a very impressive home record against newly promoted sides. They lost their first-ever Premier League game against a promoted side when they lost to Norwich City in November 2021. But since that loss, the Bees have won 11 straight at home, scoring an average of 2.8 goals per game, conceding just 1.0 per game.

Brentford's results at home against newly promoted Premier League opponents (source: FBref)