Correlation FC

Brentford at Crystal Palace, preview

The Bees play their sixth consecutive league game in London, making the short trip to Selhurst Park, to take on the defending FA Cup champions.

The match-up

The Bees and the Eagles started their Premier League relationship with a series of draws, with the teams finishing each of their first five games tied. Palace was the first to win, back in December 2023, but the Bees did the double on them last season.

Recent form

Saturday's match-up will start with both teams level on 13 points, going into the weekend firmly mid-table, with Palace holding a goal differential advantage of 3 goals.

Palace started the season extremely well, but have faltered a bit lately, only having won a single game of their last 5 across all competitions, with that win coming against Liverpool midweek in the League Cup.

The Bees have been flying lately, only dropping one of their last 5, that being a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City.

The Opta Power Ranking table shows Palace a few steps ahead of the Bees, rated 7th in the Premier League and 12th globally.

Opta Power Rankings (as of 31st October 2025)

Comparing the teams

Similarities

With the ball, the two teams seem to play in similar ways. Both are low possession (17th and 19th overall) and are near the bottom of the statistical tables in terms of touches and passing. However, both have managed to be effective at turning their low possession numbers into high-quality scoring chances, with both near the best in the league for shots on target percentage and non-penalty expected goals (xG) per shot.

Palace leads the league with the highest xG total for the season. However, they're also the leading underperformers when you compare actual goals to expected goals – they've scored about 6 goals less than they "should have" according to their xG. The Bees have scored 1 more than expected. Let's hope that Palace's underperformance lasts at least one more game before the statistics begin to equalise.

Comparing Brentford and Crystal Palace's goals and expected goals (source Correlation FC)

Brentford's 2025-26 goals

October has been a good month for goals for the Bees, scoring 10 goals in their 4 matches, while conceding only 3. Igor Thiago is one of the top scorers in the league, while the team saw five different goal scorers in the 5-0 victory against Grimsby Town.

We've taken a look at not only who is scoring, but which positions are scoring for the Bees. While they haven't played with a 4-2-3-1 formation in every game, it's been one of their most common attacking shapes this season. Thiago, Fabio Carvalho and Mathias Jensen have scored in both competitions – Carvalho and Jensen while playing different positions, showing the versatility that coach Keith Andrews values so much in his squad.

Brentford goals by competition (source Correlation FC)

The question

Our question for this week is simple. What about Yarmo? Yehor Yarmoliuk left the Liverpool game midway through the first half, in obvious pain. He's been having a great season so far, likely his best with the club. The club has announced that Yarmoliuk is "available for Saturday's game", but will he play? Will he be fit enough to play 90 minutes? If he doesn't play, who will take his place? Vitaly Janelt and Jensen are the two most likely choices, but even that will create a domino effect with creating room for somebody else on the bench.