Correlation FC

Brentford at West Ham, preview

We've come full circle at Correlation FC. The first match preview we published was for last season's visit to the London Stadium. We used some correlated data to correctly predict the outcome, but not the final score. We also discussed their coaching situation, as the Hammers had recently hired Graham Potter as their new head coach. Fast-forward until now, and we'll once again be talking about another new coach for the Hammers.

The match-up

While both based in London, this is the London "derby" with the most distance between the stadiums. It's about a 25km drive if you're willing to go straight across the city, or about 45km if you'd prefer the North Circular. If you'd prefer public transportation, you might want to give yourself 90 minutes. Though why not bike? It'll take about the same amount of time.

Recent form

The two teams both find themselves much closer to the bottom of the table than they'd like to. The Bees currently sit 16th while only the Wolves' rough start to 2025-26 is keeping West Ham out of last place. Both teams lost their most recent games.

Looking at the Opta Power Ranking for teams across the season so far, you can see that both teams have underperformed relative to their peers, with Brentford's rating dropping from 92.2 to 90.4, and West Ham's dropping from 90.0 to 87.1.

Opta Power Ranking throughout the 2025-26 season (Brentford at West Ham) (source: Opta)

Reflecting on the League points and fixture difficulty chart that we recently published, you can see that the Hammers have picked up only 2 points, but they've had one of the toughest schedules in the league with matches against the likes of Chelsea, Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Everton and Arsenal, all difficult opponents this season.

Coaching situation

We couldn't find any stats to back this up, but it feels like a rare situation for the Bees where they'll be facing their fourth different West Ham coach in their last four match-ups.

West Ham coaches, last 4 matches against Brentford (source: FBref)

West Ham's latest coach, Nuno Espírito Santo, has coached against the Bees six previous times during his tenures at Wolves and Nottingham Forest. He's won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 against the Bees.

Comparing the teams

Similarities

The Bees and the Hammers are similar in a few statistical ways this season. Neither team has been shooting much this season, ranking 17th and 20th overall for shots attempted. However, both are near the top for their percentage of shots on target (Brentford 1st, West Ham 4th). The teams are at the top of the league for their shortest average shot distance.

Both teams seem to be content to play without a lot of possession. The Bees sit second lowest in the league with an average of only 39% possession. West Ham is 14th with 46% possession. We'll see which team takes the initiative in controlling possession on Monday night.

Differences

Brentford's goalkeepers have been kicking the ball long this year and sit second in the league with launching the ball on 40% of all touches and from 70% of goal kicks. West Ham has launched the ball only 25% of the time (50% on goal kicks), among the least frequent in the league.

As we mentioned above, both teams have taken few shots, but lots of high-value shots close to the target. Brentford has had more success getting those shots on target, sitting 3rd in the league for goals/shot. The Hammers are 15th.

West Ham loves to switch play with long (40+ yard) cross-field passes. They're 4th in the league for this. Brentford, meanwhile, sits lowest in the league, preferring instead to go directly downfield with their long passes.

In terms of substitutes, West Ham sits 18th in the league with an average of 3.3 subs per game. Brentford has used an average of 4.6 subs per game. While Brentford has involved more players in the game, West Ham has brought them in earlier, averaging 21 minutes per substitute appearance, while the Bees sit last in the league with only 15 minutes per appearance.

So what does it all mean?

It's tough to say what this all means. Neither team would be satisfied with their results so far this season. Both are coming off of losses. Both are coming off of the international break. One has a brand new coach, the other has a coach that's still new to his role. Neither team has been strong in possession. Neither team shoots much, but when they do, it's in close to the goal.

So what will we see on Monday night as the country tunes in live (or not) on Sky Sports? Truly, nobody knows.