Correlation FC

Brentford vs Manchester City, preview

There's always an uncertain mix of excitement, fear and anticipation when Manchester City comes to town. While they aren't quite as dominant now as they were in recent years, they still have arguably the best coach in the world, the best goal scorer in the world and a squad full of incredible players. But as we all know, Brentford aren't an easy team to push around, and the Bees have had some successful results against City.

Recent history

The last time out, Christian Norgaard scored in extra time to earn a 2-2 draw after City had gone up 2-0. Overall, City has had the edge in the Premier League era, though with Phil Foden averaging a goal per game against the Bees.

Recent form

City currently sit 7th in the league with 3 wins, 2 draws and a loss. They're on a 6-game unbeaten streak across all competitions. They won last weekend away at Burnley and drew at Monaco during the week. The only teams they've beaten away this season are Wolves and Huddersfield.

The Bees have only won once in their last 5, but that was a convincing win against Manchester United last weekend. The Bees are undefeated at home this season.

Opta Power Rankings (as of 3rd October 2025)

Club	Current PL position	Opta rating	PL rank (Opta)	Global rank (Opta)
Brentford	13	90.8	11	23
Manchester City	7	97.7	3	4

Pre-game correlation

City has worn their blue home kit away from home twice this season, winning at Wolves and drawing at Arsenal. They've worn black in their other away games. The Bees are undefeated this season against teams wearing blue (Chelsea) or black (Aston Villa, Manchester United).

The question

Going into this week's fixture, we have one question that we're looking forward to answering after the game.

Question: How will Brentford try to assert themselves?

City has been a dominant team in Europe for the past decade. For years, they have controlled games by maintaining high possession numbers and excellent controlled passing. They lead Brentford in nearly every statistical category this season. It more or less feels like we know what City will do, so the question becomes, what approach will Brentford take against them? Park the bus and hope for a few chances on the counter and from set pieces? Will they match up more offensively and try to play a possession game? How, especially at home, will Brentford want the game to be played?

Other data stories

Will Foden miss KDB?

Foden has scored 7 Premier League goals against Brentford. Incredibly, he's the only Manchester City player to ever score in Brentford.

Of his 7 goals against Brentford, four have been assisted. Three of those assists came from Kevin de Bruyne. With KDB having moved to Napoli, will Foden be kept off the scoring sheet? Bees fans hope so.

Goal-scoring strikers

Going into the weekend, the top two goal scorers in the league are Erling Haaland and Igor Thiago. Nobody would question the fact that Haaland has been an incredible goal scorer over the past several seasons and that you can't really compare Haaland and Thiago at this stage. But we will, just for kicks.

First up, we'll compare them as "regular" players – looking at a full range of skills and statistics.

Comparing Igor Thiago and Erling Haaland (source FBref.com)

Haaland enjoys a clear edge across almost all attacking areas. When it comes to possession, you can see how the players are different – Thiago is used more in passing situations. Haaland excels in progressive carries – it's easy to visualise him charging down the pitch with the ball. It's interesting to see how much he's accomplished with relatively few touches. Haaland clearly isn't involved in most of City's defensive setup, beyond defending corners. With his size and strength, it's no surprise to see that he excels in aerial duels. Thiago offers a breadth of defensive skills for the Bees with excellent ratings in clearances, blocks and tackles.

Next, we compare them as "complete forwards", probably a better comparison of the two strikers.

Igor Thiago and Erling Haaland side-by-side as "complete forwards" (source FBref.com)

It's easy to see that Haaland is the ultimate goal creation machine. Thiago gets a slight edge in the goals/shot rating, but Haaland otherwise dominates on shooting. In passing and possession, you can again see how the two are different, with Haaland leading in carries into the penalty area, while Thiago leads in passes into the penalty area. Is it an indication that they are different types of players? Or just that the teams have them play different roles, with Haaland a more obvious singular target compared to Thiago who has other speedy forwards like Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara to combine with?

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