Correlation FC

Brentford vs Manchester United, preview

Manchester United comes to town again. Many Brentford supporters will be interested to see Bryan Mbeumo, as he returns to Brentford for the first time since signing with United.

Recent history

The Bees won the last time the two sides played, a 4-3 victory at the Gtech in May. In the Premier League era, the home team has won 6 of the 8 encounters between the teams. Both of Brentford's victories in the series came with 4 goal outputs. Many Bees fans will never forget the dominating 4-0 victory over Manchester United at the Gtech on a sunny late summer day in 2022.

Recent form

Neither team has been great so far this season. United have not yet put together back-to-back wins, but did play well last weekend at home against Chelsea. They come to Brentford with 2 wins, 2 losses and a draw in the league. Brentford lost last weekend away to Fulham but come into the the weekend undefeated at home across all competitions.

Opta Power Rankings (as of 26th September 2025)

Pre-game correlation

League Two side Grimsby Town made headlines last month when they defeated United in the EFL Cup on penalties. That same team knocked out Sheffield Wednesday in the third round. Brentford have drawn them away for the fourth round, in about one month's time. Will the Bees find success on the road, or will the Mariners knock out another higher-ranked opponent? Time will tell.

Prediction #1

Brentford haven't lost at home this season and the streak will continue, so Brentford will take at least one point against United.

Prediction #2

The Bees rarely play in the 12:30 time slot. In fact, they haven't played the early Saturday game since February 2024. In the Premier League, the Bees have won 4 times, drawn once and lost once at 12:30, picking up points against Manchester City, Tottenham, Wolves and Chelsea along the way. We're doubling down on the first prediction. The Bees will own the 12:30 time slot and win the game against United.

Prediction #3

United is always a big draw at the Gtech, and the team has averaged an attendance of 17,118 in their 4 Premier League match-ups. Brentford will have their best home game attendance of the season so far against United.

The questions

For this week's fixture, we have two main questions.

Question 1: How will Bryan be received?

What will the Gtech fans do when Mbeumo is involved in the game? Boo? Golf clap? Roar? What kind of reaction will there be if he scores? What about post-game?

Question 1b: Who will be the best #19 on the day?

Dango Ouattara took over Mbeumo's shirt number when he joined the club. He had a debut goal against Villa a few weeks ago but has been quiet since. Will he rise to the occasion and look to make an impact? Brentford's record sale against Brentford's record signing. Could be interesting.

Question 2: Will Brentford play in a back 5 again?

Keith Andrews has played a back 5 on a few occasions recently, including in the recent draw against Chelsea and loss to Fulham. Will he stick with a back 5 again? Will he return to the back 4 that he played earlier in the season? Do Brentford have enough depth up front to enable them to return to the 4-2-3-1 formation that worked well for them last season?

Question 2b: Will Andrews stick with Pinnock?

If the Bees to go with a back 5, will Andrews stick with Ethan Pinnock? Will Kristoffer Ajer get his first league start of the season? Would his speed be a better match for United? Or would Pinnock's left foot help to anchor that side of the pitch? We'll find out.

Some unrelated answers

We'll try this again, offering some answers (unrelated to the question above). After the game, we'll provide the questions. It's like a television game show, but without the prizes.

1. Surprising
2. Not surprising
3. 0

Other data stories

What's it like to come home?

Mbeumo isn't the first offensive threat that the Bees have sold in recent years. The first game against your old club is always a big one, especially if it's at your former ground. Let's look at how some former Bees did in their first games against the Bees and on their first trip back to Brentford.

Watkins, Maupay and Benrahma against the Bees (source: FBref.com)

In this small sample size, you can see that these players didn't create a lot, offensively, in their first encounters against the Bees. Watkins has now scored 6 goals against the Bees. Maupay has scored 1. Benrahma never scored against the Bees. We'll keep an eye on this as the season progresses, as Yoane Wissa may have his opportunity against Brentford, and who knows, maybe even Ivan Toney will find his way back to Brentford at some point as well.