Correlation FC

Bees beat Villa 1-0

The Bees successfully bounced back from a poor first half against Nottingham Forest last week and impressed in their home opener. A debut goal from Dango Ouattara surely won him some fans and ultimately won the game for the Bees.

Let's revisit our pre-game predictions.

Prediction #1

Brentford will keep a clean sheet against Villa.

Correct. Villa never really threatened to score.

Prediction #2

Ouattara will make an appearance in the game, likely off the bench.

Correct enough. He started and played very well.

Prediction #3

Mikkel Damsgaard will be looking tired, but will start the game for the Bees.

Well, he didn't look too tired as he played a full 90 minutes, scored a beauty of a goal (that was questionably taken away) and was back to his 24-25 form.

Trends that continued

Bees started well at home

The Bees haven't lost their league home opener since 2019, so it's no surprise that they won again. Many will, of course, remember last season's brilliant start at home when they were undefeated in their first 8 home games.

Speedy right winger scores a left-footed goal

Bees fans have become accustomed in recent years to seeing a speedy right winger score a left-footed goal. This time around it was Ouattara instead of Bryan Mbeumo but the result was still the same.

KLP at left-back

Should this be a trend that continued or what was different? Hard to say. Either way, Keane Lewis-Potter started and played much of the game at left-back. Late in the game, he did move up to a forward position alongside of Igor Thiago. His versatility and fitness are impressive.

Changed formation during the game

The Bees started the game in a familiar 4-2-3-1 formation. As they looked to the bench for reinforcements to kill off the game, the team switched to a back 5, looking something like a 5-2-1-2 with Frank Onyeka and Mathias Jensen supporting the defenders. It's been nice to see Jensen embracing his more defensive role so far this season.

Limiting Villa to only 2 shots on target

One of Brentford's strengths last season was absorbing pressure, blocking shots, and forcing opponents into taking poor-quality shots. Villa attempted 17 shots but only 2 made it through to result in shots on target.

What was different

Home clean sheet

The clean sheet against Villa was a welcome sign. Caoimhin Kelleher only had to save 2 shots on target as the entire team ran miles to limit chances. While the Bees enjoyed a lot of success at home last season, they only had a single clean sheet (a 0-0 draw against Chelsea in April). Earlier Premier League seasons saw as many as 7 clean sheets, so hopefully the Bees will return to their stingy form at home.

Starting lineup

Keith Andrews made 4 changes to his starting lineup, bringing in Mikkel Damsgaard, Jordan Henderson, Kevin Schade and Ouattara. There was only 1 occasion last season when Thomas Frank made 4 lineup changes, and that was forced largely by injuries. (They lost 2-0 to Nottingham Forest.)

Going long from goal

The Bees rarely played out from the back, with Kelleher launching all 7 of his goal kicks, sending them an average of 65 yards. Overall, 86% of his passes were launched at least 40 yards up the field. For comparison, Mark Flekken launched only 34% of his passes across the 2024-25 season.

One of Kelleher's launches, early in the first half, did find Thiago's head, who flicked it onto Ouattara who ended up scoring. Both Thiago and Kelleher pick up goal contributions for their efforts.

Lowest possession (and a win)

It's unlikely that Andrews will be satisfied with only having 24% possession throughout the game, but the Bees did make effective use of counterattacks and, in the second half, seemed content to sit back and absorb pressure. Last season, the Bees' lowest possession total was 32% away at Fulham, another game where they sat back and were ultimately defeated by a pair of late goals.

Coach Henderson?

It was fun to watch Henderson work the game. Any time there was a pause in the action, and especially before set pieces, you could see him speaking directly to the other Brentford players. He especially seemed to be helping Ouattara with his defensive positioning on set pieces.

His final act of on-field leadership occurred when he was being replaced by Onyeka, as he demonstrated some world-class time-wasting. First, there was the "who me?" delayed reaction to acknowledge that it was him being replaced. He then proceeded to make a slow walk over to the referee for a brief chat and handshake. He did the same with several of the other Villa players before walking even more slowly toward the sidelines, precious seconds ticking off the clock the entire time.

This is our first long-term Correlation FC prediction, but we predict that within 10 years, Jordan Henderson will be coaching in the Championship or Premier League.

Other data stories

Midfield excellence for the Bees

Damsgaard, Henderson and Yarmoliuk all played well and were especially effective at disrupting Villa in the middle of the pitch. (As mentioned above, Jensen and Onyeka both did an admirable job in helping to close out the game as well.) The 3 starting midfielders were especially effective in blocks, interceptions and tackles, with the trio bettering (or nearly bettering) the entire Villa side in a few statistical categories.

Brentford goal contributions