Correlation FC

How good (or bad) were our predictions?

For several of our match previews in the 2024-25 season, we thought it would be a good idea to look at our treasure trove of correlated data to make some predictions about what might happen. The goal is to have a bit of fun and seemingly to prove the obvious, that correlation is not causation. So here we look back at our predictions and how we did.

What types of things did we predict?

We predicted all sorts of things, but they can generally be broken down into a few groups – match outcome, kit choices, squad selection, event occurrences and stat predictions.

Were we any good at making predictions?

Not really. We were correct on 11 of 29 straightforward predictions (e.g. "Brentford will wear their green third kit"). That works out to 38%. We did even worse on our combination predictions (e.g. "if Brentford holds United to one goal or less, the Bees will win the game") getting only 3 of 8 right, which also works out to 38%.

The full review

Here's a breakdown of all of the predictions that we made throughout the season.

Review of Correlation FC predictions for the 2024-25 season (source Correlation FC)

Match week	Opponent	Prediction	Verdict
25	West Ham	Brentford beats West Ham 2-1.	Incorrect
26	Leicester City	Kevin Schade will score a goal at some point during the game with some part of his body.	Incorrect
26	Leicester City	The Bees will stick with their pink away kit as they've won their last two games with it.	Incorrect
27	Everton	Yehor Yarmoliuk will start and B Team members Iwan Morgan and Ethan Brierley will take the final two positions on the substitute bench.	Partially correct
28	Aston Villa	Brentford will outperform Aston Villa on aerial duels.	Correct
28	Aston Villa	Brentford will finish the game with fewer fouls than Villa, though they will exceed their current season average of 8.9 fouls per game.	Partially correct
28	Aston Villa	Villa will make more subs than Brentford, and their subs will, on average, play more minutes than Brentford's subs.	Correct
29	Bournemouth	Brentford will keep their unbeaten streak against Bournemouth and Kepa alive.	Correct
29	Bournemouth	Brentford will wear their green third kit.	Incorrect
29	Bournemouth	There will be a penalty.	Incorrect
29	Bournemouth	There will be a lot of crosses.	Incorrect
29	Bournemouth	Bournemouth will out-foul Brentford.	Correct
29	Bournemouth	One of the teams will end the game with a possession average higher than their season average.	Correct
30	Newcastle	f the teams combine for 6 goals, Brentford will win or draw.	Incorrect
30	Newcastle	If Michael Kayode is healthy and comes into the game as a sub, Brentford will win, as they are undefeated when he comes off the bench away from home.	Incorrect
31	Chelsea	If Chelsea wears blue, Brentford will pick up at least a point.	Correct
32	Arsenal	Rico Henry will start at left back for the Bees which will allow Keane Lewis-Potter to move forward and start his first Premier League game of the season at left wing.	Incorrect
33	Brighton	Brighton will choose their yellow away kit for the game and Brentford will continue their undefeated streak against teams in yellow.	Correct
33	Brighton	If there is a penalty in the game, it will be scored.	Incorrect
34	Nottingham Forest	Brentford will earn at least a point if they can give Forest at least 45% possession.	Correct
34	Nottingham Forest	Mathias Jensen will, like in the Bees previous game, come off the bench and gain an assist for the Bees.	Incorrect
35	Manchester United	If Brentford holds United to one goal or less, the Bees will win the game.	Incorrect
35	Manchester United	Thomas Frank will choose same starting lineup that won at Nottingham Forest earlier in the week.	Correct
36	Ipswich Town	Brentford will wear their home kit away from home against Ipswich Town.	Correct
36	Ipswich Town	Ipswich Town will have an xG of greater than 0.89 and Brentford will have an xG of greater than 1.53.	Incorrect
36	Ipswich Town	Brentford will end the game with an xG greater than 1.53 and they will also end the game with 3 points	Partially correct
37	Fulham	Fulham will make more subs than Brentford in this game.	Incorrect
37	Fulham	Brentford and Fulham will beat that average and will combine for 36 or more crosses.	Correct
37	Fulham	There will not be a penalty in this game.	Incorrect
37	Fulham	Brentford will only take in-swingers and Fulham will take a mix of in- and out-swingers.	Correct
37	Fulham	Barring injury, red card or other freak event, neither team will make a sub before the 60th minute.	Incorrect
38	Wolves	Brentford's average shot distance will be shorter than the Wolves average shot distance.	Correct
38	Wolves	The Bees will be awarded a penalty AND Bryan Mbeumo will score it.	Incorrect
38	Wolves	The Bees and Wolves will both outscore their xG.	Incorrect
38	Wolves	Brentford will score a goal from a rebound against Wolves.	Correct
38	Wolves	The Bees will win more aerial duels than the Wolves.	Incorrect
38	Wolves	Brentford will win the game.	Incorrect

Will we keep trying?

Yes, we'll definitely keep trying. However, we have no reason to believe that our predictions will get any better - that's not really the goal. We enjoy diving into our data, finding some interesting patterns and making some wild guesses about what might happen.

---