Brentford beat Nottingham Forest away, 2-0
On a night that started warm, was very wet in the middle and finished with Thomas Frank wearing somebody else's raincoat, the Bees out-defended and out-ran Forest to earn a 2-0 win.
Let's check the pre-game Correlation FC predictions:
Prediction #1
Brentford will earn at least a point if they can give Forest at least 45% possession.
Correct. Forest had 55% possession and the Bees earned 3 points.
Prediction #2
Mathias Jensen will, like in the Bees previous game, come off the bench and gain an assist for the Bees.
Wrong. Jensen did come off the bench, but it was Mark Flekken who earned an assist 2 minutes later on his long pass to Yoane Wissa.
Trends that continued
2025 away form
The Bees have had a nearly perfect 2025 away from home. The win against Forest took their calendar year record to 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss for a total of 19 of 24 possible points.
Good in green (undefeated in 4)
Cause or effect, it's difficult to know, but the Bees are also undefeated in the last 4 games when they have worn green, nicely bouncing back after not earning a point in their first three outings in green.
Wet wins on the road
The Bees have won all four games this season when they have encountered rain on the road. They haven't had any rain at home, though they have played with strong afternoon sun (which especially impacts the team defending the East goal) 6 times, earning points in 5 of those. They seem to be an all-weather team this season.
What was different
No starting lineup changes
For only the 6th time this season, the Bees didn't make any changes to his starting lineup. This game was only the second time that's happened since November. The Bees have won the last 2 games when there have been no lineup changes.
First Thursday win in the Premier League
Due to Nottingham Forest's involvement in the FA Cup semi-final last weekend, the game was moved to Thursday. This was only the 2nd time the Bees have played on a Thursday in the Premier League. They previously lost 2-0 away to Tottenham in 2021.
Seeing yellow
The Bees picked up 5 yellow cards against Forest, their highest total of the season. Previously the most they had picked up was 3. Going into the game, they were averaging 1.45 yellow cards per game. Their per game average has now moved up to 1.56 – they've still received the fewest yellow cards in the league.
Shots not on target
Both Brentford and Forest have defended well this season, and forced opponents into taking low quality shots. Throughout the season both teams have held their opponents to an average of 31% of shots on target. At the other end of the pitch, both are among the best at getting their own shots on target with the Bees leading the league at 39% and Forest not far behind at 36%. How did they do head-to-head? Forest held the Bees to only 27% on target (3 of 11) while Forest was bang on average at 36% (5 of 14).
Other data stories
Long distance passing
2 long passes led to Brentford's 2 goals against Nottingham Forest (source Correlation FC)
Both of Brentford's goals came as the result of accurate long distance passes and calm finishing. Let's look at the passing.
On the first goal, Nathan Collins was given plenty of time and space, and then launched a 53 yard pass to the top of the penalty area. While Kevin Schade's first touch control wasn't perfect, he reacted quickest to the bouncing ball and then eased the ball around Matz Sels and into the net.
The second goal followed a similar pattern, but with different players. As the City Ground crowd noise levels were rising, Mark Flekken hit a 70 yard goal kick well into the Forest half. Murillo let the ball bounce as he covered Bryan Mbeumo and Wissa beat both Nikola Milenković and Neco Williams to the bouncing ball, making his first touch just outside of the Forest box. A quick burst of speed and excellent control allowed him to chip Sels and watch as the ball bounced into the side netting.
Both goals came as a result of well executed long passes, quick reactions and tough finishes under pressure made to look easy.
GK Assist
Flekken's long pass to Wissa was his 2nd assist of the season, and 3rd in his time at Brentford. Flekken's first half pass to Nathan Collins also earned him a second assist on Schade's opening goal. Ederson is the only other Premier League goalkeeper with more than 1 assist this season - he has a remarkable 4.
Random non-data story
Maybe this is a non-story, but it seems that the second half rain was so unexpected that Frank didn't have a raincoat with him. He wore what appeared to be somebody else's jacket throughout the second half – the jacket bore the initials "FS" rather than the "TF" you would expect to see.
This story was published on 02 May 2025. It was written by Dennis Flood. The image at the top of this story was generated using AI.
