Brentford at Newcastle, preview
This game comes after both teams have had a long break in play. The Bees won their last game before the break away against Bournemouth. Newcastle also started their break off well, winning their last Premier League game away at West Ham and then winning the EFL Cup at Wembley less than a week later.
Recent history
Brentford won the most recent Premier League game between the two clubs back in December 2024. It was the first time the Bees beat Newcastle in the Premier League. Prior to that victory, Newcastle had won five in a row. The Magpies quickly rebounded from their December loss to the Bees by dominating away in the EFL Cup quarter finals, winning 3-1 at St James' Park.
Pre-game correlation
The Bees have had a tough time against Newcastle in modern times. However, they have taken a point (or more) on two of the three occasions where the teams have combined for 6 goals (3-3 away in 2021 and 4-2 at home in 2024).
Correlation FC pre-game predictions
Prediction #1
If the teams combine for 6 goals, Brentford will win or draw.
Prediction #2
If Christian Norgaard, fresh off his newly signed contract extension, starts in midfield alongside his Danish teammates Mathias Jensen and Mikkel Damsgaard, the Bees will win. The Bees are undefeated in 6 games this season when the three start together.
Update Thomas Frank has announced that Jensen will be unavailable. However, Michael Kayode should be available. If he is healthy and comes into the game as a sub, Brentford will win, as they are undefeated when he comes off the bench away from home.
Other data stories
Bees struggle after international breaks
The Bees lineup is filled the players who play for their country during international breaks. On the March 2025 break, the Bees have had 16 players representing their country. Over their 4 Premier League seasons, they've had as few as 6 (during the World Cup in late 2022) and as many as 18 on a few occasions.
Of course all Premier League teams have players out on international duty, so this situation is by no means unique to Brentford. Surely all of the players on international duty are happy to take on the additional travel, fatigue and risk of injury that come with the honour. The Bees, however, have especially struggled in the first game back after an international break, winning only 2 of their 14 games following international breaks since the 2021-22 season. This season, they are winless. This season all four post-break matches have been away from home.
While they've struggled after the breaks, they have had much better results before the breaks, winning all 4 of their pre-break matches this year.
Brentford's results before and after international breaks in the 2024-25 season (source Correlation FC)
| Break | Pre-break opponent | Pre-break score | Post-break opponent | Post-break score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Southampton (home) | Bees win 3-1 | Manchester City (away) | Bees lose 2-1 |
| October 2024 | Wolves (home) | Bees win 5-3 | Manchester United (away) | Bees lose 2-1 |
| November 2024 | Bournemouth (home) | Bees win 3-2 | Everton (away) | 0-0 draw |
| March 2025 | Bournemouth (home) | 2-1 | Newcastle United (away) | ? |
Weeknight weak night no more?
After only picking up a single point from weeknight matches during the first half of the season, the Bees are undefeated on weeknights in the second half, picking up a dominant win against Leicester City, and hard fought draws with Manchester City and Everton.
This story was published on 31 March 2025. It was written by Dennis Flood. The image at the top of this story was generated using AI.
