Brentford hosts Everton, preview
Pre-game correlation
The last six times the teams have played, Thomas Frank has set the team up in a 4-3-3 formation. He will surely do that again for this game.
Predicting starting lineup for Brentford
With Christian Norgaard set to miss the game, the question is, who will replace him. Three obvious candidates come to mind – super subs Yehor Yarmoliuk and Fabio Carvalho, along with Paris Maghoma. Maghoma is yet to start this year, so we'll rule him out. While Carvalho scored in his last appearance, when he scored earlier in the season against Wolves, he did not start his next game. So by default Yarmoliuk is the choice.
The more interesting question with very few correlations to help us, is who will fill the final spots on the substitute list for the Bees. We'll assume that seven of the nine positions are covered by regular squad members Valdimarsson, Carvalho, Konak, Maghoma, Mee, Ji-Soo and Kayode. Iwan Morgan was on the bench for the most recent match against Leicester City, so we'll give him the nod in attack. So who will be the lucky midfielder? I think it has to be Brentford B Team captain, Ethan Brierley. He was an unused substitute 13 times during the 2023-24 season, so he's a natural choice against Everton.
Predicted starters
Flekken, Ajer, Collins, Pinnock, Lewis-Potter, Janelt (c), Yarmoliuk, Damsgaard, Schade, Wissa, Mbeumo
Predicted substitutes
Valdimarsson, Carvalho, Konak, Maghoma, Mee, Ji-Soo, Kayode, Iwan Morgan, Ethan Brierley
Correlation FC pre-game prediction
Yehor Yarmoliuk will start and B Team members Iwan Morgan and Ethan Brierley will take the final two positions on the substitute bench.
Other data stories
The Bees with and without Christian Norgaard
Unfortunately Christian Norgaard will miss the game due to a concussion suffered in the first half against Leicester City. The Bees have only picked up one point in the previous games that he was unable to start due to injury. However, the Bees have picked up points in every game that he has had to leave due to injury (Crystal Palace, Leicester City) or red card (Everton). Strangely, the Bees see to do the best when they have Christian play part of a game but not a whole game.
Christian Norgaard and Brentford results comparison (source Correlation FC)
| Situation | Games | Points | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norgaard doesn't play | 3 | 1 | 0.33 |
| Norgaard starts and finishes | 12 | 13 | 1.08 |
| Norgaard starts but doesn't finish | 11 | 23 | 2.09 |
Let's hope this trend doesn't continue and that the Bees are able to pick up some points while Christian is out.
Nathan Collins and James Tarkowski
About a month ago, the BBC ran a short article that highlighted former Bee James Tarkowski and current Bee Nathan Collins as two of the league's top "old-school" players who "love to defend". Both have a Brentford connection, and both also played at Burnley (with Ben Mee) during the 2021-22 season.
Beyond being "old-school" defenders, these two also like to carry and pass the ball up the field to help create offensive opportunities for their teams. So let's look at a slightly expanded dataset to see how the two defenders compare:
James Tarkowski and Nathan Collins comparison (source FBref.com)
The verdict? Both are great defensively, but at least by these measures, Nathan Collins may take the edge on the offensive side of the ball.
Better against Moyes than Everton
David Moyes, recently returned to the team, taking over from Sean Dyche. Moyes previously managed the team from 2002-2013. The Bees, under Thomas Frank, have fared quite well against Moyes, winning 5 of their 6 previous Premier League matches, all when Moyes was at West Ham. However, the Bees are winless in their last 5 matches against Everton, only scoring a total of two goals in the five (one coached by Frank Lampard, the others by Dyche).
Last time they played
The last time the two teams played was on 23rd November 2024. They drew 0-0. Sean Dyche was still the manager at the time for Everton. Also notable:
- Norgaard received a red card in the 41st minute – the Bees later won their appeal, and the red card was rescinded
- The game was Igor Thiago's Premier League debut - he came on as a 72nd minute substitute for Yoane Wissa
- Everton attempted 43 crosses, by far their highest total for the season – they average 15 per game
- The 0-0 draw was one of six times this season that Everton has been held goalless at home
- The scoreless draw was Brentford's first clean sheet of the season, and first point on the road
- The Bees wore their red and white striped home kit away from home for the first time this season
This story was published on 25 February 2025. This story and the image at the top of the article were both created with care, by humans, not AI.
